火箭 2026-2027 赛季球员前瞻：凯文·杜兰特

First off, happy belated birthday to the Easy Money Sniper, who turned 38 on September 29th. That’s certainly a ripe old age in the NBA. Durant was drafted in the 2007 draft, which feels like a different world entirely. There are a couple other 2007 draftees around besides Durant still in the NBA: Mike Conley, Al Horford. Uncle Jeff Green currently is unsigned, and the 28th pick, Tiago Splitter, is an NBA head coach.

This will mark Durant’s 20th season in the NBA, but in some ways it’s hard to tell. Here’s a sample of five Durant seasons, (chosen by rolling a 20 sided die except for one).

These are, again, four seasons chosen at random from Durant’s career, and in the last row, last season.

Row one is 2011-2012 (5th Season, OKC, Age 23)

Row two is 2023-2024 (17th Season, PHX, Age 35)

Row three is 2015-2016 (9th Season, OKC (last season), Age 27)

Row four is 2008-2009 (2nd Season, OKC, Age 20)

Row five is 2025-2026 (19th Season, HOU, Age 37)

Over two decades it’s hard to imagine a more consistently excellent offensive player. Other than injury plagued seasons, pretty much every Durant season is within this range, with his MVP season of 2013-2014 in OKC being better still. The point here being, you can really take any season, from almost any point, of Kevin Durant’s entire career, at it will be in line with the five seasons above. He’s just that consistently superb. I might go so far as to say the most consistently good shooter in NBA history.

Why is that important? Well, until we see evidence of a decline, why worry? It’s very hard to see much of any sign of it comparing Kevin Durant’s first season with the Rockets to any other (chosen at random) in his career. Fortunately we got early 20s, mid 20s, 30s season in that sample, and they’re all just excellent KD seasons. Combing through other stats, it’s hard to see signs of decline. I suppose his free throw rate has declined from his absolute offensive peak in his mid 20s, but not that much. His rebounds dropped a bit. His percentages, though, held fast.

So what should we expect from Kevin Durant? Until proven otherwise, more of the same.

Durant also made a point at Rockets Media Day that he wouldn’t like to see his minutes reduced. At first I thought this was annoying. Of course he should see his minutes reduced, wear and tear, and so forth. He’s 38. Looking at his career, looking at last season, I’ve changed my mind. He probably should play his career average minutes per game - about 36. Last season was 36.4, his career average is 36.7. What you see in his career, overall, is that he goes down for fairly catastrophic, traumatic, or one off, injuries, and otherwise he plays about 75 games a season. Why tamper with it? The Rockets aren’t depending on five to eight more years of KD. He went out injured for the playoffs, but I’m far from sure that was some reflection of playing a lot of minutes in the regular season, because he usually does that, even when plays a lot of playoff minutes as well. He did fairly recently in Phoenix.

I think, also, that Durant, if he doesn’t get these minutes, will become more of an irritant for the team than merely the fallout from a possible burner social media account, slagging off teammates, and the way the Rockets play. I believe Kevin Durant wants to climb further up the ladder of all time scoring. He’s not going to get the counting stats he needs to do that without playing a lot of games, and playing a lot of minutes. So I think he will do both, if he is at all able to do so.

Watching Durant closely for a season though, made me reconsider one of the main media talking points regarding KD. Namely “Durant fits anywhere, in any system.” I don’t quite see it that way anymore. Instead of viewing KD as fluidly blending with his teammates, I see more of a player who is almost entirely self-contained. That doesn’t mean he won’t play with the team, but more that he doesn’t really need anything more from them than the ball. Actions would be nice, screens would help, timely passing is good. But does KD absolutely require it? Not at all.

I now see him more as the famous soloist who comes to play with a symphony or other ensemble. You’ve brought in the world renown violinist, and everyone wants to see the fireworks show. He’ll work with the orchestra, of course he will, but he’s the star for that program, not your resident first chair. Does he deliver? Yes, I think he does. Anywhere, and everywhere. It’s not exactly your hometown orchestra anymore, but it’s definitely impressive stuff.

Does he love what he does? Obviously so. The passion, dedication, talent and artistry are all clearly there, even now. Does he love playing for you, your town, though? Certainly. Inasmuch as he loves playing. But you are no more or less special than anyone else who can pay his wage, and let him practice his craft. He’s won all the awards, and prizes, now he just wants his output to be something maybe two or three players all time can match. To be an elite of the elite.

Like that famous soloist, though, he’s happy enough to pack up the fiddle and move on. And like that stereotypical virtuoso, he’s temperamental, egotistical, and not especially cognizant of lesser talents around him. There’s nothing quite like him, but strangely, there don’t seem to be many tears shed when he moves on to the next gig.

I think Kevin Durant will have another virtuoso Kevin Durant season, and will thankfully not attempt to initiate the offense. The fact that there isn’t much conducting going on with the offense matters not at all to KD. He doesn’t need it. He never has.