火箭今年会交易凯文·杜兰特吗？——The Dream Shake 分析

The rules surrounding NBA team building are loose.

You’re supposed to commit to a “timeline”. The average age of your roster is supposed to be comparable.

The rules may be loose, but that’s not to say they’re arbitrary. Many teams have tried the whole “two timelines” thing, and few have succeeded.

The idea is that, by some kind of osmosis process, the veterans will usher the young guys into title contention, as if Amen Thompson can somehow absorb Kevin Durant’s shot-making ability. There are examples of the approach working, but they all feature MVP-level young talents, like the Spurs drafting Tim Duncan with David Robinson on the roster, or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson.

So perhaps the conversation is circular. If Sengun were the Tim Duncan to Durant’s Robinson, the timeline issue becomes moot. Given the Rockets’ “lots of good young players, but none future MVP candidates” build, it’s fair to ask a question:

Could this team trade Durant?

Rockets should consider trading Durant if necessary

Rafael Stone has made a habit of trading two second-round picks for one second-round pick and Alpha Kaba so he can cut Kaba and generate a trade exception, or whatever, at the trade deadline.

It’s a good approach. Every year, Stone leaves Rockets fans disappointed because he didn’t make a blockbuster move, even though not making a blockbuster move is unequivocally better than making a bad move.

This year feels a bit different, doesn’t it? There’s some pressure after two consecutive first-round exits. The United States Ambassador to Italy is surely getting some ants in his pants. A major deadline deal feels more likely this year than it has in years past. If the Rockets aren’t, say, a top-3 seed by the deadline, it’s a looming possibility.

That’s going to mean one of two things. It’s going to mean reuniting Durant with Kyrie Irving, or pairing him with Karl-Anthony Towns, or some other superstar (side note: This summer was crazy, and all the best hypothetical trade targets got traded), or it’s going to mean trading Durant and resetting the timeline.

That feels like an awfully attractive proposition to me.

Imagine this: Duncan Robinson, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, and an unprotected future first for Durant. The Rockets’ young core will be fully substantiated by complementary players. They’ll have an elite movement shooter in Robinson, and a part-time stretch five to space the floor around Thompson in Collins. And, perhaps most importantly, the Rockets add an extra unprotected first to their war chest.

Let’s flashback. The year is 2020. The Rockets trade James Harden to the Brooklyn Nets to go play with Kevin Durant. They get no meaningful players (with apologies to Rodions Kurucs) in return. Instead, they get the most draft capital a team has ever received in an NBA trade.

Rafael Stone famously declares that his GM acumen should not be judged until 2030. Flash forward. It’s 2026 heading into 2027 in a few months. Stone’s self-imposed deadline is quickly approaching:

But he still has plenty of time.

My point? Why rush? The Rockets could flip Durant for role players and assets, draft as well as they can for a few more years, churn out the players that aren’t fitting, and see where they stand. There’s no win-now move that’s likely to put them in the title picture next year, so leaning further into the long game feels like the more sensible approach.

That might be pie you’re seeing in the sky. It’s at least equally likely that Tillman Fertitta won’t wait until 2030. Stone may be feeling the squeeze, and he may do the VanVleet, Capela and a pick for Irving thing just to maximize his odds of escaping the first round. Otherwise, three consecutive first-round exits could put his job in peril:

Those are the rules.